Master of Science in Statistics - Main Campus
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Browsing Master of Science in Statistics - Main Campus by Subject "Economic Growth"
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- ItemAgricultural production and economic growth in Somalia from 1986 to 2016(Kampala International University, College of Economics & management., 2018-09) Idiris Adam, YusufThe study aimed at examining the effect of agricultural production on economic growth in Somalia from the period of 1986 to 2016 using time series data. Specifically, the study examined the causality and the effect of agricultural production on GDP growth. The objective was motivated by the fact that the problem statement emphasized that agricultural production has not yielded expected economic growth in Somalia. The study hypothesized that no casualty between agricultural production and economic growth and that there is no significant effect of agriculture production on economic growth in Somalia. The study followed a multiple linear regression analysis which gives best linear unbiased estimates to establish relationships between GDP and the independent variables. Prior to the regression stationarity among variables was tested using ADF tests. The test results showed that all the study variables were nonstationary at level except agricultural production that only became stationary at level. The granger causality test showed that in Somalia, agricultural production does not granger cause GDP growth. The regression model showed that there is a significantly positive effect of agricultural production (13i=0.5058) and growth at 5% level, interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate effects were positively insignificant. The study concluded there is no causality between economic growth and agricultural production. The thither concluded that agricultural production has a significantly positive effect on economic growth. Thus, sustained economic growth in Somalia can be achieved through expansion of agricultural production combined with good exchange rates. This study therefore recommends that government should enabling economic and political environment to promote agricultural productivity in the country
- ItemSolow-swan model for the analysis of the effect of foreign direct investments in Ugandan Economic Growth(Kampala International University, College of Economics and management, 2023-02) Mohamed, Nur AbdiReports that global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows grew from $23 billion in 1975 to $1.95 trillion by 2017. Lower-middle income economies have seen a significant increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows as well as a rise in growth rates over the past few decades. At the aggregate level, GDP growth for lower-middle income economies was strong over the past four decades. In 1975, GDP for these economies was just 311 billion dollars. But by 2017, this figure had grown to 6 trillion dollars. FDI accounted for 0.37% of GDP in 1975 and 1.94% of GDP in 2017. In 2017, upper-middle income economies received three times more foreign direct investment (FDI) than lower-middle income economies, but the annual growth rates were similar. There is a question of whether foreign direct investment (FDI) stimulates economic growth in lower-middle income economies, and to what extent. This is an issue of interest because it has implications for how these economies can develop. There is some evidence that FDI does stimulate economic growth in lower-middle income economies. This is likely because it makes these economies more productive and efficient. However, this effect is not always positive. Therefore, it is important to consider the effects of FDI on the economy as a whole. Generally, FDI appears to be a valuable tool for growth in these economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing debate about whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive or negative effect on economic growth in lower-middle income economies with data more up to date.
- ItemStatistical Analysis of Effect of Population on Economic Growth in Uganda (2000-2020)(Kampala International University, 2022-09) Siifa, BirungiWhereas a country may foot the path for sustainable economic growth, it must strike a balance between its population growth curve and development or else the rapid growth in population can easily frustrate its efforts geared towards the ideal development if it goes unchecked. This study was intended to examine the Effect of Population on Economic growth in Uganda from 2000 to 2020. Specifically, the objectives were to; Examine the effect of Age dependency ratio on economic growth in Uganda, to Establish the effect of total fertility rate on economic growth in Uganda, and to Assess the Effect of enrollment in primary schools on economic growth in Uganda. A longitudinal study design was used to study the effect of population increase in Uganda from 2000 to 2020 and relevant data sourced World bank Development Indicators database. In order to test whether variables were stationary or not, the Augmented Dickey Fuller test was applied. Similarly, the test for Classical Linear Regression model (CLRM), Autocorrelation and Heteroscedasticity assumptions was done. Then Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation techniques using multiple linear regression model examined the effect of population on economic growth in Uganda. The study found a statistically significant negative effect of age dependency ratio on Economic growth (Beta Coefficient=-1.201591, p-value (0.029)<0.05). The model findings revealed that total fertility rate had a Statistically significant negative effect on Economic growth in Uganda. (Beta Coefficient=-6.465372, P-value (0.046) <0.05). The findings revealed that primary school enrolment did not have a significant effect on economic growth in Uganda Therefore, conclusively, that growth in age dependency ratio and increase in total fertility rate significantly reduces on the economic growth in Uganda. The study further concludes, that government and its partners need to provide economic empowerment programs to elderly people in Uganda. The government and partners are urged to improve on the programs on contraceptive uptake in the country in order to reduce on the rising total fertility rate. There should be awareness campaigns in schools, rural, and urban areas to encourage females and males to use contraceptives. Secondary school completion should be encouraged especially among girls in order to prolong age at first marriage.