Master of Science in Statistics - Main Campus
Permanent URI for this collection
Browse
Browsing Master of Science in Statistics - Main Campus by Subject "Inflation"
Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- ItemAssessing the effects of geographical expansion of Consumer Price Index (CPI) on inflation in Uganda(Kampala International University, 2017-05) Kaisiromwe, SamThe study details the effects of increasing Consumer Price Index (CPI) geographical coverage on inflation in the country.
- ItemAssessing the effects of geographical expansion of consumer price index on inflation in Uganda(Kampala International University, College of Economics & Management, 2017-05) Kasiromwe, SamThis study details the effects of increasing Consumer Price Index (‘CPI,) geographical coverage on inflation in the country. The study looked at the level 0/significance of Headline inflation and its related components, before and and geographical coverage increment. A comparison of analytical results obtained with two different CPI coverage, inflation numbers with Fort Portal Centre included in the computations and inflation numbers without Fort Portal Centre. The study applied Student’s t—test for the comparison of two means assuming unequal variance. The before and after study indicated that monthly Headline inflation is significantly different across the two data sets (P (T< =1,) two-tail = 0.0096 is less than 0.05). In addition, the monthly core inflation is significantly different across the two inflation trends (P (T< =~ two-tail = 0.0003 is less than 0.05). However, the study showed that the monthly inflation of Food Crops and related items is not significantly diffident across the two inflation trends, P (T<=t~) two-tail = 0.1361 is greater than 0.05). Similarly, the monthly Energy, Fuel and Utilities Inflation is~ different between the two inflation trends (P (T< =t,) two-tail = 0. 1361 is greater than 0.05). The result of Food Crops indicated that the expansion did not have any effect on the group ‘s CPI trends in the region. Thus the price changes in the two urban centres in Food Crops are the same and this could be because of the same climatic conditions of the western region. However, a further comparison of the two centres of Mbarara and Fort Portal, gave a clear distinction of the inflation trends in the separate urban towns. The significant difference in the Core inflation indicated that the group items in different urban centres have unique prices and thus more urban towns should be brought on board in CPI computation to further improve on the accuracy of inflation estimates in the country. Since the study revealed that there were changes in headline inflation due to expansion of coverage, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics should continue expanding the coverage of CPI items especially in the for eastern part of the country which is not uniquely represented in the national CPI. The EFU inflation trends were not affected by expansion of coverage due to the fact that Utilities Such as Water and electricity have a uniform price throughout the country thus emphasis in expansion should be put on improving the core Inflation trends which is mostly used by policy makers in the country. This research has filled the gap of the effects of geographical coverage of CPI and its effects on Inflation trends in Uganda. This study sets itself apart from generic economic researches that have been done before because; it combines the tools of econometrics, mathematics and statistics to analyze a statistical phenomenon: inflation before and after geographical expansion. Due to the fact that these results of the rebased CPI are only reflecting the urban expenditure patterns of Uganda, it is recommended that a study be carried out including the rural expenditure patterns. This research recommends that Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS,) should begin the process of computing Rural Inflation trends in the country which will give a clear view of a complete picture of how inflation trends behave in the country.
- ItemReal exchange rate, inflation rate and private investments in Uganda (1990-2014)(Kampala International University, College of Economics & Management, 2017-05) Mohamed Abdullah, Adam M.The main objective of the study is to examine the impact of real exchange rate and inflation on private investments in Uganda. The two objectives were to determine the effect of real exchange rate on private investment; to determine the effect of inflation rate on private investment. The study used Real exchange rate, Inflation rate, Bank credit, Foreign direct investment, Public investment and trade as the determinants of private investment using secondary data for a period of 1990-2014 gathered from the world bank database. Analysis was carried out using a combination of both correlation and an ordinary least squares multivariate regression model. The data shows that the level of private investment has steadily been increasing for the 24 -year period considered in this study. Furthermore, the rate of inflation in Uganda has been quite irregular though averagely stable in the recent years with some slight movements up and down. Additionally, the real exchange rates have been decreasing though at a rather irregular rate for between 1990 and 2014. The results of the regression analysis show that there exists very significant negative effect of real exchange rate on private investment in Uganda. Further analysis indicates that there exists a negative and significant effect of inflation rate on private investment after log transformation in Uganda. The study concludes that inflation is very insignificant in explaining the observed trend in private investment. Thus, an increase in inflation may lead to a decrease in private investment. The study further concludes that there is a very significant negative effect of overall real exchange rate on the level of private investment in an economy. In other words, an increase in the average value of real exchange rate in the economy is expected to result into a decrease in the average level of private investment in the economy. Since the results reveal that mild changes in the overall rate of inflation have got a stimulatory effect on private investment, the study recommends that it is imperative for the policy makers to adopt structural reforms that will keep the inflation rate in check so as to stimulate the economy. Furthermore, due to the very significant effect of the real exchange rate (price level) on private investment in Uganda, the study recommends that policy makers ought to adopt strategic and systematic that would prevent the exchange rates from escalating through strategies that would bring more foreign currency into the economy since its impact on private investment can easily be felt. The study also recommends that policy makers should formulate competition policies within the Ugandan trade sector as this will not only help reduce fake goods in the market, but also help expand access to finance for private investors as this will bring more money in circulation, offer wider choices of products, and encourage better services hence economic growth of the country.