Trade policy and performance of export manufacturing industries in Nigeria
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Date
2017-08
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Kampala International University, Directorate of Higher Degrees and Research
Abstract
This study examines the impact of trade policy and performance of export manufacturing industries in Nigeria. It adopts time series data on a number of policy variables to determine their impacts on the manufacture exports as well as their significance or otherwise in stimulating export in Nigeria. In specific term, it also (a) identify the major determinants of manufacture exports in Nigeria, (b) determine the causal relationship existing between manufacture exports and trade policy (i) Openness, (ii) exchange rate, (iii) average tariff rates and (iv) capacity utilization in Nigeria. (c) determine the effect of trade policies on performance of the manufacturing industries of Nigerian economy pre – structural adjusted programme (SAP) and lastly to determine the effect of trade policies on performance of the manufacturing industries on Nigerian economy post structural adjustment programme (SAP). Empirical analysis of the data from 1970 to 2014 using co-integration analysis, ordinary least square (OLS), Vector autoregressive (VAR) model, unit root tests, cross correlation, Engle Granger co-integration test; Johansen’s test for co integration and granger co-integration test, have produced interesting results. Specifically, all the results have ultimately confirmed that there is, indeed a long-run and significant relationship among manufacture exports, trade openness, exchange rate, average tariff rates and capacity utilization. However, in the short-run, manufacture exports in Nigeria respond to current trade openness, current exchange rate and the first and third lags of itself. Finally, the results show that there is a long run co-integrating relationship between the variables. This implies that in the long run, trade policies have impact on manufactured exports in Nigeria. In conclusion it is also recommended that there is urgent need to diversify the economy away from single commodity oil; given the uncertainties in the world oil market, adopt policies that will ensure greater market access for the country’s manufacture exports as well as boosting their competitiveness at the international market. These could be achieved through the adoption of trade and exchange rate liberalization policies that are devoid of control and regulations and lastly, policy option to moderate import liberalization in order to reap the benefit of a positively related and significant exchange rate variable with manufacture exports within the framework of market determined exchange rate.
Description
A Phd Dissertation Presented to the College of Higher Degrees and Research in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the award of the Doctor of Philosophy in Economics of Kampala International University, Uganda
Keywords
Trade policy, Performance, Export Manufacturing Industries, Nigeria