Population growth and youth unemployment In Somalia (1991-2017)
Loading...
Date
2018-08
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Kampala International University
Abstract
The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of population growth on youth unemployment in Somalia from 1991 to 2016. The specific objectives of the study was to examine the long-run relationship, causation, and effect of population growth on youth unemployment rate. The study used crosssectional and longitudinal research design for the data obtained from World Bank where stationarity test was conducted using ADF tests prior to estimation. Unemployment,Gdp growth, population growth and gross capital formation were nonstatinary at levels but all were stationary at first differences. Cointegration test indicated existence of cointegration and hence a long run relationship between population growth and unemployment rate since the p-value of 0.0023 is less 0.05. The granger causality test concluded significant causation between population growth and unemployment rate . A multiple log-linear regression model of first difference of unemployment rate, population growth, Gross domestic product growth rate and gross capital formation was fitted, the results indicated significant relationship at 5% level of significance. The study concluded that there is a long run relationship between population growth and unemployment rate. There was significant causation between population growth and youth unemployment rate and the effect of population growth on unemployment was significant. There was also normality of the error term suggesting robustness in the estimation. It is recommended that the government and non-governmental organizations should invest rather on the youth through relevant training, skilling and proper manpower planning to increase productivity. There is also need to create an enabling environment for self-employment, entrepreneurship and other productive ventures for the youth instead of controlling population, gross capital formation and GDP growth.
Description
A research Dissertation submitted to the College of Economics and Management in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the Master of Science in statistics of Kampala International University
Keywords
Population growth, youth unemployment, Somalia