Master of Science in Statistics - Main Campus

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    Simulation study on the performance of robust outlier labelling methods
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics and management, 2023-10) Abdiweli, Ahmed Jama
    The identification and labeling of outliers play a crucial role in data analysis and modeling tasks. Robust outlier labeling methods aim to accurately identify observations that deviate significantly from the majority of the data points while being resilient to noise, measurement errors, and data corruption. In this simulation study, we evaluate the performance of various robust outlier labeling methods using synthetic datasets. To conduct the study, we defined the simulation setup by specifying the characteristics of the datasets, including the number of variables, sample size, distributional assumptions, and proportion of outliers. Synthetic datasets were generated based on these specifications, incorporating both normal observations and outliers with known characteristics. A set of robust outlier labeling methods was selected for evaluation. These methods were designed to effectively handle outliers and provide reliable labels. Implementation of the selected methods was carried out using a programming language, ensuring proper application to the generated datasets. Performance metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) were defined to assess the effectiveness of the outlier labeling methods. Each method was applied to the synthetic datasets, and the results were recorded. The performance metrics were calculated based on the known labels of the synthetic outliers. The collected results were analyzed and compared to identify the strengths and limitations of each robust outlier labeling method. The performance metrics were used to assess accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency. To ensure the reliability of the findings, the simulation study was repeated with different simulation setups and datasets, validating the consistency of the results across multiple iterations. Based on the findings, conclusions were drawn regarding the performance of the evaluated robust outlier labeling methods. The most effective methods for the specific characteristics of the datasets used in the study were identified. These findings provide valuable insights for researchers, practitioners, and data analysts in choosing appropriate outlier labeling methods for their data analysis and modeling tasks. In summary, this simulation study contributes to the understanding of the performance of robust outlier labeling methods and provides a systematic evaluation framework for comparing and selecting suitable methods in the presence of outliers.
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    Time series analysis on effect of infrastructural investments on Ugandan GDP growth rate
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics and management, 2023-08) Yahye, Abdulkadir Osman
    study aimed at analyzing the impact of infrastructural investments in transport, education and health on Ugandan GDP growth rate using time series analysis from 1985-2021. The study objectives were to determine the trend of infrastructural investments variables withGDP growth rate, secondly to assess the relationship between infrastructural investments variables onGDP growth and to determine the magnitude and direction of the relationship infrastructural and GDP growth. The study was a longitudinal time series data analysis for the period of 37 years. The study analysis was based on descriptive, inferential and model checks to determine the reliability of the analysis. The study findings show that the average of investment rate in transport was 9.270, health had 4.356, and education was 2.969, their respective median values were 8.420, 4.70 and 2.890 respectively. GDP growth rate had 6.0656 and its median was 6.300. These two values are close to each other indicating minor symmetry with the variable. The trend of infrastructural investments and that of GDP growth rates are generally not high in the study. Secondly the study found that infrastructural investments is significantly is related to GDP growth rate 1985-2021. In the findings, its indicated that the presence of infrastructural development is deemed to significantly generate the GDP growth rate. Thirdly findings indicate that infrastructural investments had a moderate and statistically significant relationship on GDP growth rate in Uganda’s economy (1985-2021). In this case therefore, it’s pivotal to argue that the occurrence of the infrastructural investments has had a moderate effect on the GDP. First the study conclude that the trend of Infrastructural investments in Uganda since 1985 to date has generally been increasing with low increment, the status of the investments of infrastructures is limited in the existence of the environment of controls. Secondly, the study found that infrastructural investments have significantly is related to GDP growth rate 1985-2021. In the findings, its indicate that the presence of infrastructural development is deemed to significantly generate the GDP growth rate. The study found that infrastructural investments is related and can be used to attain the improvement in the GDP growth rate in the country over time.Thirdly, the findings indicate that infrastructural investments had a moderate and statistically significant relationship on GDP growth rate in Uganda’s economy (1985-2021). In this case therefore, it’s pivotal to argue that the occurrence of the infrastructural investments has had a moderate effect on the GDP. The results indicate that the state of infrastructural investments in the country has a direct effect and contribute to the GDP growth rate in Uganda; there is need for them to concentrate on the infrastructural investments for their countries. The first objective recommend that there has been some investments in transport compared to health and education which remain lagging behind, it’s pivotal therefore that the infrastructural investments be improved in performance functionality, the infrastructures such as health and education need to be seriously invested in to generate the coherence to their performance. Secondly it’s recommended that infrastructure investments be improved through investing more in the health systems in order to increase the system functionality. There is need for streamlining the policy on education to make it more skillful so as to encourage job creators for economic development. The budget of the education systems was low and hence need to be increased if human development can be improved for generating the country growth. Thirdly the study recommend that there is need for increased design on work connected to enable the performance of the infrastructures of the communities in health and education through allocating significant resources to the education sector development.
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    Solow-swan model for the analysis of the effect of foreign direct investments in Ugandan Economic Growth
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics and management, 2023-02) Mohamed, Nur Abdi
    Reports that global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows grew from $23 billion in 1975 to $1.95 trillion by 2017. Lower-middle income economies have seen a significant increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows as well as a rise in growth rates over the past few decades. At the aggregate level, GDP growth for lower-middle income economies was strong over the past four decades. In 1975, GDP for these economies was just 311 billion dollars. But by 2017, this figure had grown to 6 trillion dollars. FDI accounted for 0.37% of GDP in 1975 and 1.94% of GDP in 2017. In 2017, upper-middle income economies received three times more foreign direct investment (FDI) than lower-middle income economies, but the annual growth rates were similar. There is a question of whether foreign direct investment (FDI) stimulates economic growth in lower-middle income economies, and to what extent. This is an issue of interest because it has implications for how these economies can develop. There is some evidence that FDI does stimulate economic growth in lower-middle income economies. This is likely because it makes these economies more productive and efficient. However, this effect is not always positive. Therefore, it is important to consider the effects of FDI on the economy as a whole. Generally, FDI appears to be a valuable tool for growth in these economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the ongoing debate about whether foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive or negative effect on economic growth in lower-middle income economies with data more up to date.
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    Statistical Analysis of Effect of Population on Economic Growth in Uganda (2000-2020)
    (Kampala International University, 2022-09) Siifa, Birungi
    Whereas a country may foot the path for sustainable economic growth, it must strike a balance between its population growth curve and development or else the rapid growth in population can easily frustrate its efforts geared towards the ideal development if it goes unchecked. This study was intended to examine the Effect of Population on Economic growth in Uganda from 2000 to 2020. Specifically, the objectives were to; Examine the effect of Age dependency ratio on economic growth in Uganda, to Establish the effect of total fertility rate on economic growth in Uganda, and to Assess the Effect of enrollment in primary schools on economic growth in Uganda. A longitudinal study design was used to study the effect of population increase in Uganda from 2000 to 2020 and relevant data sourced World bank Development Indicators database. In order to test whether variables were stationary or not, the Augmented Dickey Fuller test was applied. Similarly, the test for Classical Linear Regression model (CLRM), Autocorrelation and Heteroscedasticity assumptions was done. Then Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation techniques using multiple linear regression model examined the effect of population on economic growth in Uganda. The study found a statistically significant negative effect of age dependency ratio on Economic growth (Beta Coefficient=-1.201591, p-value (0.029)<0.05). The model findings revealed that total fertility rate had a Statistically significant negative effect on Economic growth in Uganda. (Beta Coefficient=-6.465372, P-value (0.046) <0.05). The findings revealed that primary school enrolment did not have a significant effect on economic growth in Uganda Therefore, conclusively, that growth in age dependency ratio and increase in total fertility rate significantly reduces on the economic growth in Uganda. The study further concludes, that government and its partners need to provide economic empowerment programs to elderly people in Uganda. The government and partners are urged to improve on the programs on contraceptive uptake in the country in order to reduce on the rising total fertility rate. There should be awareness campaigns in schools, rural, and urban areas to encourage females and males to use contraceptives. Secondary school completion should be encouraged especially among girls in order to prolong age at first marriage.
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    Private sector investment and economic growth in Uganda (1985-2014)
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management, 2017-10) Mohamoud, Abdulkadir Diriye
    The study aimed at examining the effect of private sector investment on economic growth in Uganda from the period of 1985 to 2014 using time series data. Specifically, the study examined the causality, the long-run relationship between private sector investment and economic growth and also the impact of private sector investment on GDP growth. The objective was motivated by the fact that the problem statement emphasized that private sector investment has not yielded expected economic growth in Uganda. The study hypothesized that no casualty and long-run relationship between private sector investment and economic growth and that there is no significant effect of private sector investment on economic growth in Uganda. The study followed a multiple linear regression analysis which gives best linear unbiased estimates to establish relationships between GDP and the independent variables. Prior to the regression stationary among variables was tested using ADF and Phillip Perron tests. The test results showed that all the study variables were stationary at level except trade, population and inflation rate that only became stationary after first difference. The granger causality test showed that in Uganda, private sector investment does not granger cause GDP growth. Johansen Co-integration tests showed existence of co-integration among variables. The regression model showed that there is a significantly positive effect of private sector investment (f3~=1 .454) and growth at 5% level, population growth (136=-0.874) showed a negatively significant effect on growth. Inflation rate and exchange rate effects were positively insignificant while trade and gross capital formation effects were insignificantly negative at 5% level. The study concluded there is no causality between economic growth and private sector investment and no a long-run equilibrium relationship between private sector investment in Uganda. The further concluded that private sector investment has a significantly positive effect on economic growth whereas population growth has a significantly negative effect on economic growth. Thus sustained economic growth in Uganda can be achieved through expansion of private sector investment combined with good exchange rates and price legislation. This study therefore recommends that government should enabling economic and political environment to promote privatization in the country.