Time series analysis on effect of infrastructural investments on Ugandan GDP growth rate
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Date
2023-08
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Kampala International University, College of Economics and management
Abstract
study aimed at analyzing the impact of infrastructural investments in transport, education and health on Ugandan GDP growth rate using time series analysis from 1985-2021. The study objectives were to determine the trend of infrastructural investments variables withGDP growth rate, secondly to assess the relationship between infrastructural investments variables onGDP growth and to determine the magnitude and direction of the relationship infrastructural and GDP growth. The study was a longitudinal time series data analysis for the period of 37 years. The study analysis was based on descriptive, inferential and model checks to determine the reliability of the analysis. The study findings show that the average of investment rate in transport was 9.270, health had 4.356, and education was 2.969, their respective median values were 8.420, 4.70 and 2.890 respectively. GDP growth rate had 6.0656 and its median was 6.300. These two values are close to each other indicating minor symmetry with the variable. The trend of infrastructural investments and that of GDP growth rates are generally not high in the study. Secondly the study found that infrastructural investments is significantly is related to GDP growth rate 1985-2021. In the findings, its indicated that the presence of infrastructural development is deemed to significantly generate the GDP growth rate. Thirdly findings indicate that infrastructural investments had a moderate and statistically significant relationship on GDP growth rate in Uganda’s economy (1985-2021). In this case therefore, it’s pivotal to argue that the occurrence of the infrastructural investments has had a moderate effect on the GDP. First the study conclude that the trend of Infrastructural investments in Uganda since 1985 to date has generally been increasing with low increment, the status of the investments of infrastructures is limited in the existence of the environment of controls. Secondly, the study found that infrastructural investments have significantly is related to GDP growth rate 1985-2021. In the findings, its indicate that the presence of infrastructural development is deemed to significantly generate the GDP growth rate. The study found that infrastructural investments is related and can be used to attain the improvement in the GDP growth rate in the country over time.Thirdly, the findings indicate that infrastructural investments had a moderate and statistically significant relationship on GDP growth rate in Uganda’s economy (1985-2021). In this case therefore, it’s pivotal to argue that the occurrence of the infrastructural investments has had a moderate effect on the GDP. The results indicate that the state of infrastructural investments in the country has a direct effect and contribute to the GDP growth rate in Uganda; there is need for them to concentrate on the infrastructural investments for their countries. The first objective recommend that there has been some investments in transport compared to health and education which remain lagging behind, it’s pivotal therefore that the infrastructural investments be improved in performance functionality, the infrastructures such as health and education need to be seriously invested in to generate the coherence to their performance. Secondly it’s recommended that infrastructure investments be improved through investing more in the health systems in order to increase the system functionality. There is need for streamlining the policy on education to make it more skillful so as to encourage job creators for economic development. The budget of the education systems was low and hence need to be increased if human development can be improved for generating the country growth. Thirdly the study recommend that there is need for increased design on work connected to enable the performance of the infrastructures of the communities in health and education through allocating significant resources to the education sector development.
Description
A research report submitted to school of mathematics and computing in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Master Degree of Statistics of Kampala International University
Keywords
Time series analysis, Infrastructural investments, GDP growth rate, Uganda