Effect of mortality, fertility and net migration on population growth in Uganda (1985-2015)
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Date
2017-10
Authors
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Publisher
Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management
Abstract
The study aimed at examining the effect of mortality rate fertility rate and net migration on population growth in Uganda from the period of 1985 to 2015 using time series data.
Specifically, the study aimed at examining how each of these variables affects population growth. The objectives were; to examine the relationship between mortality rate and population growth rate in Uganda, to determine the relationship between fertility rate and population growth rate in Uganda are and to assess the relationship between net migration and population growth rate in Uganda rate. The hypothesis of the study was that there is no significant relationship between the independent variables of mortality rate, fertility rate, net migration and the dependent variable of population growth in Uganda. The study tested for stationarity among variables using ADF and Philip Perron methods. The stationarity results showed that all the variables of the study were stationary at level. Correlation analysis was used to exhaustively discuss the objectives. The findings from the correlation analysis indicated that fertility rate (r=0.228) and net migration (r=0.275) had appositive relationship with population growth while mortality rate (r=-0.30) had a negative relationship with population growth rate. Furthermore, the regression model showed that net migration has a positive significant effect on population growth also fertility rate has a positive non significant relationship with population growth rate. On the other hand, mortality rate has a negative significant impact of population growth. The study concluded that fertility rate and net migration are positively related to population growth while mortality rate is negatively related to population growth. Basing on the findings, this study recommended that there should be improvement on the health facilities across the country as a way of reducing infant and child mortality and that the policy makers must ensure that there is equitable and proportional distribution of resources to all geographical locations whether urban or rural in the country. Finally, the study recommended that through government and NGOs, contraception counseling be provided by trained family or general physicians and be conducted prior to marriage as this will better inform couples with choices of contraception.
This will also contribute to meeting the unmet need for contraception and reducing unwanted fertility thus reducing population growth rate in the country.
Description
A Dissertation Submitted to the College of Economics and Management in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Award of Master of Science Degree in Statistics of Kampala International University Kampala, Uganda
Keywords
Mortality, Fertility, Net migration, Population growth, Uganda