Browsing by Author "Idiris Adam, Yusuf"

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    Agricultural production and economic growth in Somalia from 1986 to 2016
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics & management., 2018-09) Idiris Adam, Yusuf
    The study aimed at examining the effect of agricultural production on economic growth in Somalia from the period of 1986 to 2016 using time series data. Specifically, the study examined the causality and the effect of agricultural production on GDP growth. The objective was motivated by the fact that the problem statement emphasized that agricultural production has not yielded expected economic growth in Somalia. The study hypothesized that no casualty between agricultural production and economic growth and that there is no significant effect of agriculture production on economic growth in Somalia. The study followed a multiple linear regression analysis which gives best linear unbiased estimates to establish relationships between GDP and the independent variables. Prior to the regression stationarity among variables was tested using ADF tests. The test results showed that all the study variables were nonstationary at level except agricultural production that only became stationary at level. The granger causality test showed that in Somalia, agricultural production does not granger cause GDP growth. The regression model showed that there is a significantly positive effect of agricultural production (13i=0.5058) and growth at 5% level, interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate effects were positively insignificant. The study concluded there is no causality between economic growth and agricultural production. The thither concluded that agricultural production has a significantly positive effect on economic growth. Thus, sustained economic growth in Somalia can be achieved through expansion of agricultural production combined with good exchange rates. This study therefore recommends that government should enabling economic and political environment to promote agricultural productivity in the country
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    Inflation and economic growth in Uganda (1995~2015)
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management, 2016-11) Idiris Adam, Yusuf
    This study set out to investigate the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth rate (% annual GDP) in Uganda (1995-2015), the study employed time series survey data since examined data for a short time ,its objectives were; to establish the trend of import in Tanzania (1995-2015), to establish the trend of GDP growth of Uganda (1995-2015), to investigate the relationship between Inflation rate and GDP growth rate in Uganda (1995-2015), the hypothesis of the study was there is no significant relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth rate in Uganda time series analysis such Correlation analysis, regression analysis mechanisms were used. The trend of inflation rate has shown a general decrease over the period under study and GDP growth rate has shown a general increase for the period under study. Using the correlation, regression approach, there was a strong negative correlation between inflation rate and GDP growth(r=-0.805), there was a relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth at 0.05 level of significance, stationarity was tested and found that both inflation rate and GDP has trend by using ACF and PACF. There is relationship between Inflation Rate and growth Rate in Uganda which agreed with Khan (1992), Tobi (1994), Cooley (1990) study on inflation rate and GDP growth rate. The study has also supported the theory of aggregate demand stated by Keynes (1883-1946) which that there is a negative relationship between Inflation and Economic growth.