Population growth and youth unemployment in Uganda (1991-2014)
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Date
2017-05
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Publisher
Kampala International University, School of Engineering and Apllied Sciences
Abstract
This study was motivated by the fact the Uganda has one of the fastest population growth rates in
the world accompanied by high unemployment rates thus the study aimed at investigating the
relationship between population growth rates and youth unemployment in Uganda (1991 to
2014). The specific objectives of the study were; to find out the long run relationship between
the population growth rate and youth unemployment rate in Uganda, to examine the causality
between population growth and youth unemployment as well as to determine the effect of
population growth rate on youth unemployment rate in Uganda. The hypothesis of the study was;
there is no significant relationship between population growth rate and youth unemployment,
There is no granger causality between population growth rate and youth unemployment rate in
Uganda and there is no significant effect of population growth rate on youth unemployment rate
in Uganda. The study was carried out using secondary data collected from 1991 to 2014.
Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF), tests were carried out on the variables of population growth
rate and youth unemployment and were found to non-stationary at level but stationary after first
difference. Cointegration results of Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue findings showed that there
is no long run relationship between population growth rate and youth unemployment. Granger
causality tests also indicated that population growth causes youth unemployment in Uganda. A
regression model encompassing all variables under study was developed to help assess how
population growth rate in Uganda impacts youth unemployment rate. The results indicate that the
independent variables account for 40.3% changes in youth unemployment rate. The overall
model was significant on the basis of the F-statistic and the coefficient of determination that was
reported by the data. The study concluded that there is appositive significant relationship
between population growth rate and youth unemployment as was revealed from the model. Thus
having discovered that there is a problem of rampant population growth rate in Uganda; this
study recommended that there is need to formulate population control measures like family
planning methods that are aimed at reducing that rate at which population of Uganda grows. To
encounter the problem of increasing youth unemployment, the study recommended that there
should be proper and adequate education system and training facilities that empowers young men
and women with skills that make them job creators rather than job seekers.
Description
A research dissertation submitted to the college of economics and management in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the master of science in statistics of Kampala International University.
Keywords
Population growth, Unemployment, Uganda