Forecasting The Effect of Social Media Usage on The Academic Performance of Kampala International University Students Using the Prophet Model
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Date
2026
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Abstract
This study investigates the effect of social media usage on the academic performance of students at Kampala International University. The study focuses on key usage dimensions, including frequency, duration and purpose, alongside temporal factors such as seasonality, changepoints and holiday effects. A sample of 371 students was used, with data collected as weekly observations of academic performance measured through examination scores from January 2020 to the 2025–2026 academic period. A quantitative research approach was employed, integrating time-series forecasting and regression-based analysis. The Prophet model was applied as the primary forecasting technique, alongside ARIMA and multiple linear regression for comparison. Model performance was evaluated using MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The results indicate that social media usage has a statistically meaningful but modest negative effect on academic performance. Social media usage (β_1= −0.0077) and frequency (β_2= −0.0013) show negative associations, while digital literacy (β_3= = 0.0039) and perceived social media effects (β_4= 0.0053) exhibit small positive contributions. Temporal analysis reveals seasonal variations and structural changes corresponding to academic events such as examinations and semester transitions. Forecast results suggest that academic performance remains relatively stable over time, with predicted weekly mean scores fluctuating around the mid-70s range. Holiday effects are short-term and do not produce lasting impacts. In terms of model performance, the Prophet model outperforms ARIMA and regression models, achieving MAE = 3.185 and RMSE = 4.124, compared to ARIMA (MAE = 3.503; RMSE = 5.195) and regression (MAE = 3.923; RMSE = 4.915; MAPE = 5.67%). The findings confirm that social media usage is a significant predictor of academic performance. The study emphasizes the importance of controlled and purposeful social media use in academic settings.