Modeling the Influence of Human Population Structure Dynamics on Forest Biomass Availability: A Case Study of Kartala Forest, in Western-Mbadjini Region of Comoros

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Kampala International University, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences .
This study intended to develop a model showing the influence of human population structure dynamics on forest biomass cover. By establishing the relationship between forest cover and human sub-populations, a regression model was generated for the prediction of the survival of Kartala forest. The Zero, Juvenile and Senior free as well as the interior equilibrium states of the model were obtained and analyzed for stability. Numerical simulations of the various model parameters were obtained using mat-lab software. The simulation gave the public enlightenment coverage level that would guarantee high forest biomass density and thus optimum yield. Pearson correlation analysis was used to establish the relationship between Kartala forest cover and the sub-populations (Juvenile and Senior). Perfect negative relationships (p<O.05) were found between Juvenile and senior sub-population and the Kartala forest cover (r2 = 0.911 and r2 = 0.944) respectively. The regression model for the prediction of the survival of Kartala forest was done using linear regression analysis. The model (Y 22414.9 — l.060X1 — 598X2) shows if these activities are left unchecked the Kartala forest will be depleted in the near future.
A thesis submitted to the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences in Partial Fulfillment for the Requirements of the Award of Master of Science Degree in Environmental Management, Kampala International University.
Human Population, Forest Biomass Availability, Modeling the Influence, Structure Dynamics, Kartala Forest