Master of Economic Policy and Planning - Main Campus

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Agricultural production and economic growth in Somalia from 1986 to 2016
(Kampala International University, 2018-09) Yusuf, Idiris Adam
The study aimed at examining the effect of agricultural production on economic growth in Somalia from the period of 1986 to 2016 using time series data. Specifically, the study examined the causality and the effect of agricultural production on GDP growth. The objective was motivated by the fact that the problem statement emphasized that agricultural production has not yielded expected economic growth in Somalia. The study hypothesized that no casualty between agricultural production and economic growth and that there is no significant effect of agricultural production on economic growth in Somalia. The study followed a multiple linear regression analysis which gives best linear unbiased estimates to establish relationships between GDP and the independent variables. Prior to the regression stationarity among variables was tested using ADF tests. The test results showed that all the study variables were nonstationary at level except agricultural production that only became stationary at level. The granger causality test showed that in Somalia, agricultural production does not granger cause GDP growth. The regression model showed that there is a significantly positive effect of agricultural production (β1=0.5058) and growth at 5% level, interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate effects were positively insignificant. The study concluded there is no causality between economic growth and agricultural production. The further concluded that agricultural production has a significantly positive effect on economic growth. Thus sustained economic growth in Somalia can be achieved through expansion of agricultural production combined with good exchange rates. This study therefore recommends that government should enabling economic and political environment to promote agricultural productivity in the country.
Balance of trade and economic growth in Uganda (1984-2014)
(Kampala International University, 2017-02) Farah, Sid-Omar Osman
The study was set to investigate the relationship between trade balance and economic growth rate of Uganda from 1984-2014.
Balance Of Trade and Economic Growth in Uganda (1984-2014)
(Kampala International University, school of masters of economic policy and planning, 2017-02) Osman Farah, Sid-Omar
The study was set to investigate the relationship between trade balance and economic growth rate of Uganda from 1984-2014. The objective was to determine the level of balance of trade in Uganda from 1984-2014 (ii) to establish the level of economic growth of Uganda from 1984-2014 and to establish the relationship between balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda 1984-2014. The study was a time series research that involved analysis of the historical data for the Uganda balance of trade and economic growth rates for the year, 1984 to 2014. The data was attained from the international monetary fund abstracts, World Bank reports and World economic outlook. The data adopted a correlation design based on quantitative research approach. In conclusion, the study was successfully carried out and all the objectives fulfilled. The first objective was accomplished where it was found that the level of balance of trade was in deficit over the period of 31 years in Uganda though some improvements in deficits were cited in some years. The level of economic growth of Uganda was both in its highs and lows though some years experienced increases there is really a double digit economic growth indicate seen. The researcher on the third objective established that there was a closer relationship between the balance of trade and economic growth of Uganda from 1984-2014. The level of relationship was found on all parameters used for measurements The researcher recommends that there is need to improve exports through establishing export substitution industries in order to produce more exports. The government should embark on industrialization, and modern technique of agricultural production since this area can employ large population resulting into high productivity. The relationship was found positive therefore there is need for supporting domestic investors that will be able to reinvest their profits for further development.
Budget deficits and national debts in Uganda (1980-2020)
(Kampala International University, College of economics and management, 2023-05) Mohamud, Ali Abdi
The purpose of the study was to assess the effect of budget deficits on national debts in Uganda 1980-2020. The objectives of the study was to establish the trend of budgets deficits and national debt, to examine the effect of budgets deficits on external debt and thirdly to examine the effect of budget deficits on domestic debt of Uganda from 1980-2020. The study was conducted based on a longitudinal research design were the data was collected based on 41 years. The study was conducted based on ex-post facto research design focusing on longitudinal design. The study was based on quantitative research for the assessment of the secondary data for scientific assessment and determining the conclusions for objectives. The data was analyzed using E-VIEWS to perform the Ordinary Least Squares regression in order to establish if the above variables significantly affect export growth rate as well as the other tests which precede regression analysis. The study findings show that budget deficits) is statistically significant at 10% level of significance in explaining variations in external debt in Uganda because their correlations 0.0795 for budget deficits. Secondly budget deficits is statistically significant at 10% level of significance in explaining variations in external debt in Uganda because their correlations 0.009 for budget deficits, the effect between the variables was positive meaning the increase in the budget deficits led to increase in the domestic debt of Uganda. The study further conclude that the state of the national debt is worrying, the overall debt that is generally domestic and external debt are currently at 40% of the GDP. Secondly the study concludes that increase in the budget deficits has a significant effect on the external debt. The study conclude that the continues increase in the budget (deficits) presents a high degree of influence into the national debt as the country will seek to highly attain the debts in order to support their activities. Thirdly, the studies conclude that budget deficits are statistically significant with domestic debt at 10% level of significance in explaining variations in external debt in Uganda because their correlations 0.009 for budget deficits. The budget deficits have made Uganda to high borrow internally in the country, the increase in the budget deficits has hence continued to lead to the increase of the national debt. The study recommends that for the country to curtail its deficits, the government must instead adopt a fiscal adjustment mechanism that increases revenue collection through an improved taxation system and raise domestic revenue mobilization rather than borrowing with high service rates to finance its budget deficits, secondly the study recommend for the need to reduce the dependence of the current account and government budget on oil export to reduce both deficits and government debt sustainability. To achieve this goal the government could gradually replace oil with non-oil exports and tax revenues. Thirdly the study recommend that there is need for boosting production and export base; there is also need for government to pursue policies that will boost the production goods for both domestic consumption and export in the long run.
Contributions of civil society organizations and poverty reduction in selected Borama District, Somaliland
(Kampala International University, College of Economics & management., 2012-12) Mohamed Hussein, Mohamed
(CSO5) on different programs and projects planned and executed and Concern Borama in the wellbeing of the beneficiaries in particular and the contribution they made to the poverty reduction efforts of the District. In light of this, Primary data collected from Field and data collected through questionnaire were used to make the paper sound. Simple random sampling design was employed to select the sample respondents from the total CSOs. The collected data has been analyzed by using SPSS Package. The study result shows that the poverty reduction programs that CSOs organizations have brought significant change in the poverty status of the program beneficiaries. The researcher concludes that their Contribution made significant change in the poverty reduction in Borama, Somaliland.
Determinants of export growth in Uganda (1991- 2o16)
(Kampala International University, College of Economics & management., 2019-05) Mohamoud Mohamed, Salah
Agriculture in Ugandan, accounts for about half of GDP, it contributes about 85% of exports, and employs 80% of the work force. Statistics show that the value of traditional exports remained minimal compared to the other sectors of the economy. This study examined factors affecting export performance in Uganda between 1991 and 2016. Secondary data were employed using time series to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Real Exchange Rate (RER) and Terms of Trade (TOT). The study found out that real exchange rate foreign direct investment and terms of trade were significant to export performance. Gross Domestic Product was also found positively related to export growth. However, Inflation Rate was found negatively related to exports. The study concludes that improved export performances for both traditional and nontraditional exports, as well as to diversify export base of the country by formulating good trade policy, attract more Foreign Direct Investment, improve infrastructure and create good business environment. This study also recommended that Uganda’s economy must try to attract more foreign direct investment not only to improve its exports, but also to bring in foreign exchange, capital, technology & other important resources such as market knowledge.
Determinants of export growth in uganda (1991-2016)
(Kampala International University, 2019-04) Salah, Mohamoud Mohamed
Agriculture in Ugandan, accounts for about half of GDP, it contributes about 85% of exports, and employs 80% of the work force. Statistics show that the value of traditional exports remained minimal compared to the other sectors of the economy. This study examined factors affecting export performance in Uganda between 1991 and 2016. Secondary data were employed using time series to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Real Exchange Rate (RER) and Terms of Trade (TOT). The study found out that real exchange rate foreign direct investment and terms of trade were significant to export performance. Gross Domestic Product was also found positively related to export growth. However, Inflation Rate was found negatively related to exports. The study concludes that improved export performances for both traditional and nontraditional exports, as well as to diversify export base of the country by formulating good trade policy, attract more Foreign Direct Investment, improve infrastructure and create good business environment. This study also recommended that Uganda’s economy must try to attract more foreign direct investment not only to improve its exports, but also to bring in foreign exchange, capital, technology & other important resources such as market knowledge.
Economic growth and unemployment in Uganda (1991 - 2014)
(Kampala International University; College of Higher Degrees and Research, 2016-04) Ahmed, Mohamed E.
This post-graduate thesis presents a regression analysis of the accumulated empirical evidence on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Uganda. Okun’s law emphasis the relationship between economic growth and unemployment stating that there is inverse relationship among economic growth and unemployment. Even so, sometimes both variables move towards same direction meaning an increase of economic growth leads to a rise of unemployment. The researcher employed correlation design with linear regression analysis using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) to analyze the empirical impacts of economic growth on unemployment in Uganda. The data of these both variables were confidential and were taken from the Ugandan Bureau Of Statistics and World Bank as this thesis concerned in Uganda. The result of findings showed that there is weak negative correlation between economic growth and unemployment in Uganda from 1991 to 2014. The analysis displayed that 1% increase of economic growth reduces 2.3% of the unemployment in Uganda which is acceptable according the Okun’s law, saying “ to reduce unemployment in l% point during a year, the economic growth must grow nearly 2% points faster than the rate of growth of potential economic growth over that period. The regression analysis further showed that the null hypothesis was rejected as critical value of F (0.159) is greater than 0.05 of significant level. The researcher recommended according to the findings that Uganda should not emphasize the economic growth more to reduce the unemployment in the country but the other variables (investment, inflation, government policies etc) that affect the unemployment after when research is being done.
Economic Growth and Unemployment in Uganda (1991 — 2014)
(Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management., 2016-04) Ahmed, Mohamed Elmi
This post-graduate thesis presents a regression analysis of the accumulated empirical evidence on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Uganda. Okun’s law emphasis the relationship between economic growth and unemployment stating that there is inverse relationship among economic growth and unemployment. Even so, sometimes both variables move towards same direction meaning an increase of economic growth leads to a rise of unemployment. The researcher employed correlation design with line regression analysis using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) to analyse the empirical impacts of economic growth on unemployment in Uganda. The data of these both variables were confidential and were taken from the Ugandan Bureau Of Statistics and World Bank as this thesis concerned in Uganda. The result of findings showed that there is weak negative correlation between economic growth and unemployment in Uganda from 1991 to 2014. The analysis displayed that 1% increase of economic growth reduces 2.3% of the unemployment in Uganda which is acceptable according the Okun’s law, saying “ to reduce unemployment in 1% point during a year, the economic growth must grow nearly 2% points faster than the rate of growth of potential economic growth over that period. The regression analysis further showed that the null hypotheses was rejected as critical value of F (0.159) is greater than 0.05 of significant level. The researcher recommended according to the findings that Uganda should not emphasize the economic growth more to reduce the unemployment in the country but the other variables (investment, inflation, government policies etc) that affect the unemployment after when research being done.
Economic growth and unemployment in Uganda (1991 — 2014)
(Kampala International University, College of Economics & management., 2016-04) Ahmed Mohamed, Elmi
This post-graduate thesis presents a regression analysis of the accumulated empirical evidence on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment in Uganda. Okun’s law emphasis the relationship between economic growth and unemployment stating that there is inverse relationship among economic growth and unemployment. Even so, sometimes both variables move towards same direction meaning an increase of economic growth leads to a rise of unemployment. The researcher employed correlation design with linear regression analysis using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) to analyses the empirical impacts of economic growth on unemployment in Uganda. The data of these both variables were confidential and were taken from the Ugandan Bureau of Statistics and World Bank as this thesis concerned in Uganda. The result of findings showed that there is weak negative correlation between economic growth and unemployment in Uganda from 1991 to 2014. The analysis displayed that 1% increase of economic growth reduces 2.3% of the unemployment in Uganda which is acceptable according the Okun’s law, saying “to reduce unemployment in b/a point during a year, the economic growth must grow nearly 2% points faster than the rate of growth of potential economic growth over that period. The regression analysis further showed that the null hypotheses was rejected as critical value of F (0.159) is greater than 0.05 of significant level. The researcher recommended according to the findings that Uganda should not emphasize the economic growth more to reduce the unemployment in the country but the other variables (investment, inflation, government policies etc) that affect the unemployment after when research being done
Economic growth and unemployment in Uganda (1991-2014)
(Kampala International University,College of Economics and Management, 2016-04) Ahmed, Mohamed; Elmi
This post-graduate thesis presents a regression analysis of the accumulated empirical evidence on the relationship between economic growth and unemployment In Uganda. Okun’s law emphasis the relationship between economic growth and unemployment stating that there Is Inverse relationshIp among economic growth and unemployment Even so, sometimes both variables move towards same direction meaning an increase of economic growth leads to a rise of unemployment. The researcher employed correlation desIgn with Ilnearregression analysisusing Statistical Package for Social ScIence (SPSS) to analyse the empirical impacts of economic growth on unemployment In Uganda. The data of these both variables were confidential and were taken from the Ugandan Bureau Of Statistics and Woild Bank as this thesis concerned In Uganda. The result of findIngs showed that there is weak negative correlation between economic growth and unemployment In Uganda from 19Ô1 to 2014. The analysis displayed that 1% increase of economic growth reduces 2.3% of the unemployment In Uganda which is acceptable according the Okun’s law, saying “to reduce unemployment In 1% poInt during a year, the economic growth must grow nearly 2% poInts faster than the rate of growth of potential economic growth over that period. The regression analysis further showed thatthe nullhypotheses was rejected as critical value of F (0.159) is greater than 0.05 of significant level. The researcher recommended according to the findings that Uganda should not emphasize the economic growth more to reduce the unemployment In the country but the other variables (investment, Inflation, government polides etc) that affect the unemployment after when research being done.
Effect of exchange rate on foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019)
(Kampala International University, College of economics and management, 2022-09) Bile, Abdrisak; Mohamed
The purpose of the study was to determine the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The study objectives were to determine the trend of exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments, then establish the short run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019) finally to determine the long run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The trend was analyzed using descriptive statistics and trend graphs to show the level of exchange rate fluctuation and foreign direct investments. The data was analyzed using majorly the estimation techniques of ARDL to determine the long run and short run relationship between the variables, the error correction mechanism was used to determine the short run relationship between exchange rate and foreign direct investments. The results show that there has been a general trend of FDI increase from 2000 to 2010 and then increased though at a low rate followed by the decrease in 2019, generally the trend of foreign direct investments is slowing and improving, the rate of the foreign investments in the country has generally increased in the country although at a low rate. The study show that exchange rate value for Uganda during the period of time was generally increasing from 1986, the policy of devaluation led to the increase in the value of the exchange rate, however from 2000s the rate of the exchange in terms of foreign currencies started reducing especially with the United states dollar. The study reveals that there is a negative significant relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments. The third objective reveal that the there is a long run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The study conclude that exchange rate tends is generally increasing in a negative form, since the devaluation of the Ugandan currency in 1989, there has been consistent depreciation of the country’s currency. The study conclude that the existence of exchange rate fluctuations in the long run significantly affect the foreign direct investments in Uganda over the period of the study. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations have reduced the level and value of foreign direct investments in Uganda. Thirdly, the study found that there is a long run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The study results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations reduced the state of foreign direct investments in the country is possibly scared off by the exchange rate fluctuations in Uganda. The study recommends that the trend of exchange rate is unstable; the stability of the exchange rate is needed, not at a fixed level but by controlling exchange rate volatility using the exchange rate target band. The study recommends that foreign direct investments need to be developed; there is need for schemes of tax holidays, provision of land to the foreign investors needed to generate the increase in investments schemes. Secondly, in the short run, since we have established from this study that exchange rate fluctuations weakly impact on FDI inflows, other factors may play a more significant role in attracting foreign capital to Uganda. These may include factors like an unfavorable political climate, stagnation in growth and development of key and emerging sectors in the country like agriculture tourism and manufacturing. It would therefore be important for policy makers not to put a lot of effort in influencing exchange rates but more on setting up policies that influence the other determinants of FDI. Thirdly in the long run, the study has found that exchange rate fluctuations significantly but lowly affected on FDI, the other macroeconomic indicators be the main focus in developing policies aimed at creating a favorable economic environment that can attract FDI to Uganda.
Effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Uganda (1985-2016)
(Kampala International University , College Of Economics And Management, 2018-08) Elmi, Mohamed Ahmed
The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Uganda (1985-2016). The study objectives were (i) To determine the effect of government expenditure on economic growth of Uganda (ii) To examine the effect of government tax revenue on the economic growth of Uganda and (iii) To assess the effect of government non tax earning on the economic growth of Uganda. The study was entirely secondary data which was collected from World Bank and OECD and world economic indicators on government expenditure, tax revenue, nontax revenue and economic growth in Uganda shillings (LCU) period of 32 years. The study used time series analysis Ex-post facto design based on quantitative techniques to analyze secondary data scientifically to critically conclude the research objectives. The study conducted a series of tests ranging from unit root test, normality tests, regression analysis and serial tests to establish the status of the variables and also establish the effect of the variables using regression. The study findings indicate that all the coefficient of the Tax revenue significantly correlated to economic growth at 0.001 while public expenditure and non tax revenue was statistically not significant at 5% level of significance in explaining variations in economic growth in Uganda because their p-values 8.17 for public expenditure 0.001 for Tax revenue and 0.802 for Non tax revenue are all less than 0.05. The study concludes that public expenditure was increasing over the period of the study; the results reveal that the public expenditure had a significant effect on economic growth in Uganda. The study concludes that public expenditure needs to be improved for attaining economic growth of Uganda. The study findings on the second objective conclude that tax revenue was increasing over the time and the effect was significant, the study concludes that the tax revue increase lead to generation of values for the economy and need more comprehension for attaining economic growth of Uganda. The study finally established that the non tax revenue earnings had a low effect on the growth in Uganda. The study on overall concludes that fiscal policy had high effect on economic growth Uganda’s economic growth for Uganda from 1985 to 2016. The studies recommend that there is need for government increase in expenditure on social services and rejuvenation of infrastructure. There is need for government policy ensuring quality and sustained growth that can potentially improve the pace of Uganda’s economic advancement. On the second objective tax revenue contributes to improved economic growth. There is need for increasing revenue generation preferably through encouraging investments and supporting the creation of small business that can yield capital in order to generate more tax revenue for economic growth. The third objective recommends that there is need for generation of non tax revenue through improving accessibility to the tourism sector and growth of the tourism sector including gazeting the economic activity that generate the tax. The study contribute to prominent findings from this study is the fact that it has provided evidence to support the Keynesian theory. Indeed, economic growth or GDP can significantly be increased with public expenditure increase and tax revenue. It is now clear that an effective tax regime generates economic growth of a country. This is contrary to common belief that taxes alone cannot generate growth.
Effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Uganda (1985-2016)
(Kampala International University. College of Economics and Management, 2018-07) Mohamed Armed, Elmi
The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Uganda (1985-2016). The study objectives were (i) To determine the effect of government expenditure on economic growth of Uganda (ii) To examine the effect of government tax revenue on the economic growth of Uganda and (iii) To assess the effect of government non tax earning on the economic growth of Uganda. The study was entirely secondary data which was collected from World Bank and OECD and world economic indicators on government expenditure, tax revenue, non tax revenue and economic growth in Uganda shillings (LCU) period of 32 years. The study used time series analysis Ex-post facto design based on quantitative techniques to analyze secondary data scientifically to critically conclude the research objectives. The study conducted a series of tests ranging from unit root test, normality tests, regression analysis and serial tests to establish the status of the variables and also establish the effect of the variables using regression. The study findings indicate that all the coefficient of the Tax revenue significantly correlated to economic growth at 0.00 1 while public expenditure and non tax revenue was statistically not significant at 5% level of significance in explaining variations in economic growth in Uganda because their p-values 8.17 for public expenditure 0.001 for Tax revenue and 0.802 for Non tax revenue are all less than 0.05. The study concludes that public expenditure was increasing over the period of the study; the results reveal that the public expenditure had a significant effect on economic growth in Uganda. The study concludes that public expenditure needs to be improved for attaining economic growth of Uganda. The study findings on the second objective conclude that tax revenue was increasing over the time and the effect was significant, the study concludes that the tax revue increase lead to generation of values for the economy and need more comprehension for attaining economic growth of Uganda. The study finally established that the non tax revenue earnings had a low effect on the growth in Uganda. The study on overall concludes that fiscal policy had high effect on economic growth Uganda’s economic growth for Uganda from 1985 to 2016. The studies recommend that there is need for government increase in expenditure on social services and rejuvenation of infrastructure. There is need for government policy ensuring quality and sustained growth that can potentially improve the pace of Uganda’s economic advancement. On the second objective tax revenue contributes to improved economic growth. There is need for increasing revenue generation preferably through encouraging investments and supporting the creation of small business that can yield capital in order to generate more tax revenue for economic growth. The third objective recommends that there is need for generation of non tax revenue through improving accessibility to the tourism sector and growth of the tourism sector including gazeting the economic activity that generates the tax. The study contribute to prominent findings from this study is the fact that it has provided evidence to support the Keynesian theory. Indeed, economic growth or GDP can significantly be increased with public expenditure increase and tax revenue. It is now clear that an effective tax regime generates economic growth of a country. This is contrary to common belief that taxes alone cannot generate growth.
Effect of inflation on budget deficit in Uganda
(Kampala International University, 2019-05) Hassan, Abdirahman Said
The study sought to establish the effect of inflation on budget deficit in Uganda 1991-2016. The factors identified in the study are Budget Deficit Rate, Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Foreign Exchange, Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Product. The theory that was guiding this study is the Neoclassical theory. The reason behind conducting this study was the increment of inflation at a decreasing rate. The study used quantitative data in form of secondary data from Uganda for a 25 years’ period from 1991 to 2016. All the data was expressed in terms of percentages and co-integration design was considered appropriate as it enables the establishment of the long run relationship among the variables. The short run effect of inflation on budget deficit has been conducted by using ECM. Under co-integration the findings were showing a presence of a long run relationship in the variables in the study and for the short run there was negative and significant relationship between Inflation and Budget Deficit. From the findings, the researcher concluded that the effect of inflation on budget deficit depends on how the funds financing the deficit were used, if it was used for development purposes then it would have a positive one on the budget deficit but if it is for meeting the recurrent expenditures then there would be a negative relationship between the two. The study recommends that Uganda should broaden and manage efficiently the tax base in order to finance their expenditure adequately and help increase the multiplier that further generate output hence reduces budget deficit incidents. The study also recommends that Uganda should create more revenue sources to increase the income to reduce dependence on developed countries and also to create conducive environment for more opportunities. The study contributes that there is a need for Ugandan government to support the growth in the real sectors of the economy such as the agricultural sector and manufacturing sector by encouraging investors to have access to investable funds from banks; as suggested by alavirad, a and athawale, s. (2015) in their study the impact of inflation on budget deficit in the Islamic republic of Iran so that incidents of budget deficit is checked
Exchange rate and trade balance in Uganda (1975-2015)
(Kampala International University, College of Economics & management., 2019-04) Mohamed Hussein, Yousuf
This study examines the relationship of Exchange Rate changes and trade balances in Uganda for the period 1975 to 2O15~ Uganda needs to strengthen the capacity of firms to improve on the quality of products so that the government does not have to import almost everything especially during construction of big projects. The objectives of the study were; i) to examine the long run relationship between exchange rates and trade balance in Uganda, ii) to assess the short run relationship between exchange rates and trade balance in Uganda. To avoid spurious regression problems, the data were tested for stationarity and Cointegration. Augmented Dick -Fuller (ADF) tests show that the series were non-stationary at Level but all of them are stationary at their first difference. The Engle granger Cointegration Test shows that there are long and short run relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in Uganda. The findings of the study were; The test for stationarity using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test proved that the variables used in this study are stationary, though not in levels, but in their first differences. The next step involved test for cointegration using the Engle granger Cointegration approach which proved the existence of cointegration. Under such circumstances, we employed the error correction model (ECM), since it offers more and better information compared to other data generation processes. The results point to a close long-term effects of exchange rate and trade balance. The recommendations were; monetary policy management should emphasize price stability and minimization of volatility in interest rates and exchange rates of the shillings, and from what has been observed from the study that exchange rates can have an impact on the country’s external trade balance, exchange rates could be used as a tool to reduce the country’s external imbalances. The contribution to the study was that; the study indicated that when the international exchange rate falls, the local currency in relation to world currencies appreciates, imports become cheaper, exports become expensive thus leading to more imports and less exports. On the other hand, when the international exchange rate rises, the local currency in relation to world currencies depreciates, imports become more expensive, exports become cheaper and the country exports more and imports less. From this deduction, it is noted that foreign exchange rate movements affect international prices both negatively and positively leading to either a decline or boost in trade.
Exchange rate volatility and export of coffee in Uganda (1992-2016)
(Kampala International University , College Of Economics And Management, 2018-09) Mohamed, Osman Shire
The main purpose of this study was to establish the influence of exchange rate volatility on export of coffee in Uganda from 1992-2016. It was driven by five major objectives, to examine the significant influence of exchange rate volatility on export of coffee in Uganda, To examine the effect of inflation rates on export of Coffee (1992-2016), To establish the effect of interest rates on export of Coffee To examine the effect of foreign direct investments on export of Coffee, To examine the effect of price on export of coffee. Using time series data from the world bank and bank of Uganda and Uganda coffee development authority, both regression analysis were applied to investigate and build a model for explaining the variation in export of coffee. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test for stationarity was employed in this study to test the stationarity the export of coffee in Uganda representing Uganda’s export volume and value of coffee is considered as the dependent variables in this study. Exchange rate volatility (independent variable) is divided into four different attributes, for instance, inflation, interests rate FID and price. The exchange rate volatility was calculated by using stander deviation of the variance of nominal effect of exchange rate. The data shows all the variables after taking the first difference become stationary. The results further show that all the variables are stationary at the 5% level of significance. This is evident in the computed ADF coefficients being greater than the absolute critical tau value. The diagnostic tests for the regression model show that there is no exist of collinearity as the VIF statistics associated with each of the independent variables in the model were within the acceptable range. The results of the analysis indicate that exchange rate volatility and FDI have not statistically significant effect to the export coffee in Uganda, (1992-2016), The non significance of exchange rate volatility on export of coffee is not surprise this is because coffee is trades on the international commodity market. The data also reveals that Regression results inflation and interest rate have positive statistical significant effect on export of coffee while price have statistically significant effect on export value of coffee but not in export volume of coffee. Since the exchange rate volatility has no significant effect on export of coffee the government should undertake other studies e.g firm level research effect by coffee exporters in Uganda. The study thus recommends that Government should subsides the local farmer to be able to, more competitive in international market. Although exporters and policy makers have been preoccupied with recent steep exchange rate appreciation, focus needs to shift to production level and support towards reforms of trade agreements, since the exchange rate have no effect on export of coffee .This will enable exporters to hedge against low quality export. Government of Uganda should also promote policy of devaluate the local currency which helps the local exporters to increase their export of coffee; this would help international buyers to buy Uganda’s coffee at cheaper price. The researcher also recommends that government should help the local exports to be more accessible to the loans by lower the interest rate on loans. The researcher contributes that inflation, interest rate and price has considerable consequence on Uganda’s export of coffee while the exchange rate volatility and FDI have no significance effect on Uganda’s export of coffee.
Exchange rates and foreign direct investment in Uganda
(Kampala International University, College of Economics and management, 2021-10) Muse Dirie, Abdirashid Elmi
It has been argued theoretically that stable exchange rate has positive and significant influence on foreign direct investment hence leading to economic growth. Hypothetically, a stable exchange rate is often considered to be conducive for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). However, economic theories alone cannot adequately predict the relationship between exchange rate and foreign direct investment. Accordingly, the effect of exchange rate on foreign direct investments remains a controversial issue in empirical literature. This calls for an empirical investigation to measure the effect of exchange rate movements on foreign direct investment. This study examines the relationship between exchange rate and FDI inflows in Uganda using time series data for the period 1990 to 2017. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimation techniques method was used. The study revealed a positively significant relationship between exchange rate movement and foreign direct investment in Uganda over the period. But there is insignificant positive relationship between inflation rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and foreign direct investment inflows in Uganda. It is therefore recommended that effective monetary policies should be pursued by Bank of Uganda to stabilize the exchange rate sustainably. Such policies have the tendency to improve FDI inflows into the country.
Extension Services and Agricultural Production in Gabiley Region, Somaliland
(Kampala International University, Degree Master Of Arts Economics Policy And Planning, 2012-11) Abdirahman, Sa'ad Muse
This study explores the relationship between extension services and agricultural production in Gabiley region, Somali land. The study was guided by the following research objectives; to correlate the extension services and agricultural production in the Gabiley region, Somali land. To determine the levels of extension services among the agricultural production in Gabiley region, Somali land, to determine the level of agricultural production in Gabiley region, Somali land to determine if there was a significant difference in the level of extension services and agricultural production among the farm owners to their profile characteristics, to determine if there was a significant relationship between the level of extension services and the level of agricultural production among farmers in Gabiley region, Somali land. The study was conducted through descriptive survey and correlation research design by using quantitative approach with two parts questionnaire and 386 respondents was selected from selected farmers in Gabiley region, Somali land. The study utilized descriptive statistics, frequencies and percentage; tables were used in the presentation of data. And also Pearson's Product Moment Correlation Coefficient was applied to test correlation between extension services and agricultural production. The researcher found extension services and agricultural production in Gabiley region are significantly correlated. The researcher recommended that Somali land government should ensure continuous improvements in their services to increase agricultural production.
Extent of poverty and Rural-Urban migration in selected Villages in Maroodi-Jeeh, Somaliland
(Kampala International University; College of Economics and management, 2012-12) Mustafe, Ahmed
Poverty is synonymous with the developing countries especially in the rural areas which resulted in the migration of so many people to the urban areas in such of greener postures. This study is set to examine the relationship between poverty and rural urban migration. The study has the following objectives: To determine the profile of respondents in terms of, age, gender, educational level, employment situation; To determine the levels of poverty in selected villages in Maroodi-Jeeh; To determine the level of Rural-Urban migration in selected villages in Maroodi-Jeeh; To identify if there is a significant difference in the level of poverty and the level of Rural-Urban migration in selected villages in Maroodi-Jeeh, Somaliland; To determine if there are significant relationship between poverty and Rural-Urban migration in selected villages in MaroodiJeeh, Somaliland. The study finds out that there is a significant relationship between the extent of poverty and the rural-urban migration.

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