Master of Science in applied mathematics (MSC-AM)

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Browsing Master of Science in applied mathematics (MSC-AM) by Title

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    Assessment of the Effectiveness of Oil Spillage Management in the Melut Basin of South Sudan
    (2024) Chep Makur Chuot
    The study assessed the level of the effectiveness of oil spillage management procedures in the Melut Basin communities of South Sudan. The objectives of the study were to; examine the implication of oil spills on the Melut Basin community in the oil producing areas of South Sudan, determine the ways to the reduce of the impact of oil producing on human life, livestock, wild animals and farming in Melut Basin communities in South Sudan, explore how the spills are prevented from reaching the Melut Basin communities in South Sudan and to examine the spatial relationship trends and patterns in geography (GIS) of Melut Basin, South Sudan in the past 10 years compared to the recent years. The research design was a case study design whereby both qualitative and quantitative aspects were used. The study population comprised of 1200 respondents of which 400 was the sample size. Purposive sampling design was used to collect information and questionnaire data research tool was employed. The major findings of the study revealed that, on the implication of oil spills on the Melut Basin community in the oil producing areas of South Sudan, majority of the respondents agreed with 17.5% and strongly agreed with 64.5% that indigenous communities experience significant cultural impacts due to oil spills. On the consensus among respondents regarding the ways how spills are prevented from reaching the Melut Basin communities in South Sudan, 49.3% strongly agreed with its importance, a substantial percentage Agreed with 37.8% with mean value of 4.23. The findings of the impact of oil production on human life, livestock and farming activities in Melut Basin communities in South Sudan shed light on the ways to reduce the impact of oil production on human life, livestock, and farming activities in Melut Basin communities in South Sudan and a significant consensus strongly agrees (62.8%) with the importance of these efforts, and a substantial percentage agrees (19.3%) with mean value of 4.55. The Geographic Information System (GIS) coordinates for the Melut Basin in South Sudan have been tracked over a span of 12 years, from 2012 to 2023. These longitude coordinates, ranging from approximately 32.19123961 to 32.21033694, are vital for mapping, geospatial analysis, and monitoring changes in the region. It was concluded that on the substantial and interconnected concerns of the local community regarding the implications of oil spills, the worries expressed about health consequences underscore the pressing need for comprehensive health and safety measures in regions where oil extraction activities are prevalent. On the GIS of Melut Basin, South Sudan in the past 10 years compared to the recent years, the analysis of Geographic Information System (GIS) coordinates has provided invaluable insights into the region's environmental dynamics and resource management over the past decade. It was recommended that to address the heightened concerns about the environmental impact of oil spills, the government strengthens environmental monitoring and regulation in the region. Implementing stricter environmental standards and conducting regular assessments of oil extraction activities can help mitigate the environmental consequences. Enforcing stringent regulations for oil transport, whether by sea or land, is crucial to safeguard the Melut Basin communities. The government should work on enhancing the regulatory framework and ensuring its effective implementation and it should collaborate with healthcare providers and non-governmental organizations.
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    A mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of malaria in eastern Uganda: a case study of Butaleja district
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics & Management, 2016-05) Wakhata, Robert
    A deterministic mathematical model for studying the transmission dynamics of malaria in Butaleja district was developed using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) where humans and mosquitoes interact and infect each other. The model has live non - linear differential equations with two state variables for mosquitoes (S and I,m ) and three state variables for humans (S~ I~ and A,~) The available literature on previous work in this area was reviewed.Susceptible humans (S, ) are infected when they are bitten by in infectious mosquitoes (Im ). They then progress through infectious and asymptomatic classes before re-entering susceptible class. Susceptible mosquitoes (Sm) become infected when they bite Infectious (1,) and Asymptomatic (A,,) humans. They move to infectious class but (10 not recover due to their short life span. Following ideas advanced by Ross. [Chapter 2] (ii]. the model can be applicable to other infectious diseases of humans such as yellow fever. typhoid. sleeping sickness, cholera etc: using specific model parameters. Model Analysis was clone, equilibrium points analyzed to establish their local and global stability. The important threshold in this re search called the basic reproduction number (R0) was obtained using the method of next—generation matrix to determine whether the (us— ease dies out or persists. The rule of thumb is that: the disease— free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R0 < I and the endemic equilibrium exist provided that R0 > 1. Using parameter values, R0 for Butaleja district was found to be = 0.00000315 < i; an indication that malaria will be rolled out of the district after a certain period of time. Numerical simulations show that there is a strong positive relation ship between the number (proportion) of infected mosquitoes and infected humans in the same locality. Reducing the current rate of female anopheles mosquito bites could assist Butaleja district to achieve malaria free status by the year 2030 [26], [25]. Therefore. I recommend control methods such as ITNs and IRS the t increase mosquito death rate and reduce mosquito birth rate/mosquito bites, as well as treating asymptomatic hosts using ACTs. and IPT. Hence. the formulated model. provides a framework for studying and designing effective intervention strategies for prevention and control of malaria in the district.