Master of Economic Policy and Planning - Main Campus

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    Budget deficits and national debts in Uganda (1980-2020)
    (Kampala International University, College of economics and management, 2023-05) Mohamud, Ali Abdi
    The purpose of the study was to assess the effect of budget deficits on national debts in Uganda 1980-2020. The objectives of the study was to establish the trend of budgets deficits and national debt, to examine the effect of budgets deficits on external debt and thirdly to examine the effect of budget deficits on domestic debt of Uganda from 1980-2020. The study was conducted based on a longitudinal research design were the data was collected based on 41 years. The study was conducted based on ex-post facto research design focusing on longitudinal design. The study was based on quantitative research for the assessment of the secondary data for scientific assessment and determining the conclusions for objectives. The data was analyzed using E-VIEWS to perform the Ordinary Least Squares regression in order to establish if the above variables significantly affect export growth rate as well as the other tests which precede regression analysis. The study findings show that budget deficits) is statistically significant at 10% level of significance in explaining variations in external debt in Uganda because their correlations 0.0795 for budget deficits. Secondly budget deficits is statistically significant at 10% level of significance in explaining variations in external debt in Uganda because their correlations 0.009 for budget deficits, the effect between the variables was positive meaning the increase in the budget deficits led to increase in the domestic debt of Uganda. The study further conclude that the state of the national debt is worrying, the overall debt that is generally domestic and external debt are currently at 40% of the GDP. Secondly the study concludes that increase in the budget deficits has a significant effect on the external debt. The study conclude that the continues increase in the budget (deficits) presents a high degree of influence into the national debt as the country will seek to highly attain the debts in order to support their activities. Thirdly, the studies conclude that budget deficits are statistically significant with domestic debt at 10% level of significance in explaining variations in external debt in Uganda because their correlations 0.009 for budget deficits. The budget deficits have made Uganda to high borrow internally in the country, the increase in the budget deficits has hence continued to lead to the increase of the national debt. The study recommends that for the country to curtail its deficits, the government must instead adopt a fiscal adjustment mechanism that increases revenue collection through an improved taxation system and raise domestic revenue mobilization rather than borrowing with high service rates to finance its budget deficits, secondly the study recommend for the need to reduce the dependence of the current account and government budget on oil export to reduce both deficits and government debt sustainability. To achieve this goal the government could gradually replace oil with non-oil exports and tax revenues. Thirdly the study recommend that there is need for boosting production and export base; there is also need for government to pursue policies that will boost the production goods for both domestic consumption and export in the long run.
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    Effect of exchange rate on foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019)
    (Kampala International University, College of economics and management, 2022-09) Bile, Abdrisak; Mohamed
    The purpose of the study was to determine the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The study objectives were to determine the trend of exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments, then establish the short run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019) finally to determine the long run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The trend was analyzed using descriptive statistics and trend graphs to show the level of exchange rate fluctuation and foreign direct investments. The data was analyzed using majorly the estimation techniques of ARDL to determine the long run and short run relationship between the variables, the error correction mechanism was used to determine the short run relationship between exchange rate and foreign direct investments. The results show that there has been a general trend of FDI increase from 2000 to 2010 and then increased though at a low rate followed by the decrease in 2019, generally the trend of foreign direct investments is slowing and improving, the rate of the foreign investments in the country has generally increased in the country although at a low rate. The study show that exchange rate value for Uganda during the period of time was generally increasing from 1986, the policy of devaluation led to the increase in the value of the exchange rate, however from 2000s the rate of the exchange in terms of foreign currencies started reducing especially with the United states dollar. The study reveals that there is a negative significant relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments. The third objective reveal that the there is a long run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The study conclude that exchange rate tends is generally increasing in a negative form, since the devaluation of the Ugandan currency in 1989, there has been consistent depreciation of the country’s currency. The study conclude that the existence of exchange rate fluctuations in the long run significantly affect the foreign direct investments in Uganda over the period of the study. The study concludes that exchange rate fluctuations have reduced the level and value of foreign direct investments in Uganda. Thirdly, the study found that there is a long run relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and foreign direct investments in Uganda (1986-2019). The study results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations reduced the state of foreign direct investments in the country is possibly scared off by the exchange rate fluctuations in Uganda. The study recommends that the trend of exchange rate is unstable; the stability of the exchange rate is needed, not at a fixed level but by controlling exchange rate volatility using the exchange rate target band. The study recommends that foreign direct investments need to be developed; there is need for schemes of tax holidays, provision of land to the foreign investors needed to generate the increase in investments schemes. Secondly, in the short run, since we have established from this study that exchange rate fluctuations weakly impact on FDI inflows, other factors may play a more significant role in attracting foreign capital to Uganda. These may include factors like an unfavorable political climate, stagnation in growth and development of key and emerging sectors in the country like agriculture tourism and manufacturing. It would therefore be important for policy makers not to put a lot of effort in influencing exchange rates but more on setting up policies that influence the other determinants of FDI. Thirdly in the long run, the study has found that exchange rate fluctuations significantly but lowly affected on FDI, the other macroeconomic indicators be the main focus in developing policies aimed at creating a favorable economic environment that can attract FDI to Uganda.
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    Exchange rates and foreign direct investment in Uganda
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics and management, 2021-10) Muse Dirie, Abdirashid Elmi
    It has been argued theoretically that stable exchange rate has positive and significant influence on foreign direct investment hence leading to economic growth. Hypothetically, a stable exchange rate is often considered to be conducive for attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). However, economic theories alone cannot adequately predict the relationship between exchange rate and foreign direct investment. Accordingly, the effect of exchange rate on foreign direct investments remains a controversial issue in empirical literature. This calls for an empirical investigation to measure the effect of exchange rate movements on foreign direct investment. This study examines the relationship between exchange rate and FDI inflows in Uganda using time series data for the period 1990 to 2017. The Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) estimation techniques method was used. The study revealed a positively significant relationship between exchange rate movement and foreign direct investment in Uganda over the period. But there is insignificant positive relationship between inflation rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and foreign direct investment inflows in Uganda. It is therefore recommended that effective monetary policies should be pursued by Bank of Uganda to stabilize the exchange rate sustainably. Such policies have the tendency to improve FDI inflows into the country.
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    Extension Services and Agricultural Production in Gabiley Region, Somaliland
    (Kampala International University, Degree Master Of Arts Economics Policy And Planning, 2012-11) Abdirahman, Sa'ad Muse
    This study explores the relationship between extension services and agricultural production in Gabiley region, Somali land. The study was guided by the following research objectives; to correlate the extension services and agricultural production in the Gabiley region, Somali land. To determine the levels of extension services among the agricultural production in Gabiley region, Somali land, to determine the level of agricultural production in Gabiley region, Somali land to determine if there was a significant difference in the level of extension services and agricultural production among the farm owners to their profile characteristics, to determine if there was a significant relationship between the level of extension services and the level of agricultural production among farmers in Gabiley region, Somali land. The study was conducted through descriptive survey and correlation research design by using quantitative approach with two parts questionnaire and 386 respondents was selected from selected farmers in Gabiley region, Somali land. The study utilized descriptive statistics, frequencies and percentage; tables were used in the presentation of data. And also Pearson's Product Moment Correlation Coefficient was applied to test correlation between extension services and agricultural production. The researcher found extension services and agricultural production in Gabiley region are significantly correlated. The researcher recommended that Somali land government should ensure continuous improvements in their services to increase agricultural production.
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    Inflation and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Uganda (1984- 2014)
    (Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management Sciences ., 2016-04) Mahdi, Barre Egeh
    This research investigated the effect of inflation rate on gross domestic product (GDP) in Uganda during the period of 1984-2014 by using Correlation and Linear regression analysis to analyse and interpret the findings of data. The rate of gross domestic product was falling for the last four years in Uganda (UBO5).The researcher obtained yearly collected data of the two variables under this study from the Bank of Uganda website, Uganda bureau of statistics and World Bank. The researcher found that the trend of Inflation rate was not stable and kept changing from tirtie to time while the government did a lot of efforts to solve and did something good, while the trend of GDP growth rate was falling down little bit from time to time. The researcher found negative and insignificant relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth rate for Uganda from 1984 -2014, The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.043 implied that only 4.3% of the variations in economic growth (GDP) have been explained by inflation and about 95.7% was captured by other factors which have substantial influence on GDP but were excluded from the model . This regression analysis agrees with the correlation analysis that the Pearson’s correlation coefficient(r=-0.274) implying that there is a negative relationship between inflation rate and GDP growth rate in Uganda. The coefficient of determination (r2=0.075), shows that changes in inflation rate reduces GDP growth rate by just 7.5% and 92.5% of other factors reduces and affects GDP growth rate. These findings are also in line with many of the literature review. Results also indicate that in developing countries like Uganda there are other factors that explain GDP growth rate than inflation and therefore to study GDP in developing countries, there is need to employ more factors other than inflation alone. These results have important policy implications. Moderate inflation is helpful to growth, thus Uganda should ensure that its inflation doesn’t move to a double digit but should evolve on moderate inflation rate.